Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-26 23:12

35%
Win Probability
-6.3
Projected Margin
CI: [-26.3 to +13.7]
2
Boom Potential
Chargers D/ST, Marvin Harrison Jr.
4
Bust Risk
Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Omarion Hampton (58%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):
WR: 🔒 Jameson Williams 5.7 pts
Pending Decisions:
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Elite matchup vs CIN (31st vs QB), 53.5 game total. Brissett has been top-12 QB in 9 of 10 starts.
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Tyjae Spears TB -5.5 favored, positive game script. Higher floor in plus matchup.
RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Rookie has 16 touches/game since return. Close game script helps.
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Tetairoa McMillan Must-start WR1. CAR allows 25th-most to WRs. Experts rank JSN #3 overall WR.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Close call. Johnson has higher MC boom ceiling (33%) vs Henry (24%). TEN allows 22nd-most to TEs.
FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tetairoa McMillan XGB boom signal 42.3% (highest on roster). CIN allows 28th-most to WRs. 53.5 game total = shootout. Playing through heel injury per coach.
K: Start Jason Myers over N/A Only K on roster. SEA favored vs CAR.
D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over N/A Only D/ST on roster. HOU offense has struggled, XGB 55% boom.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.322.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.714.5MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton HOU14.912.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.819.5MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN13.45.7BUSTMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.29.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. CIN12.914.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.49.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.28.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Aggressive Boom/Bust Analysis

Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE

Standard Margin -6.3
Aggressive Margin +28.6
Your Boom/Bust 3B / 1X
Opp Boom/Bust 2B / 3X
Your Team - Aggressive View
Player Pos Conf Mode Aggr Std ESPN Δ
Jacoby Brissett QB 0.63 BOOM 25.9 22.0 20.3 +5.6
Bucky Irving RB 0.29 MODERATE 13.7 14.5 14.7 -1.0
Omarion Hampton RB 0.20 BUST 3.3 12.0 14.9 -11.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 0.37 MODERATE 18.1 19.5 21.8 -3.7
Jameson Williams WR 0.21 MODERATE 15.4 5.7 13.4 +2.0
Juwan Johnson TE 0.38 MODERATE 9.5 9.0 10.2 -0.7
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 0.49 BOOM 23.9 14.0 12.9 +11.0
Jason Myers K 0.24 MODERATE 11.8 9.0 8.4 +3.4
Chargers D/ST D/ST 0.45 BOOM 18.8 8.0 6.2 +12.7
TOTAL 140.4 113.7 - -
Opponent - Aggressive View
Player Pos Conf Mode Aggr Std ESPN Δ
De'Von Achane RB 0.16 BUST 2.3 18.0 22.3 -20.0
James Cook III RB 0.39 MODERATE 16.0 18.0 17.2 -1.2
DeVonta Smith WR 0.10 BUST 4.7 12.0 12.4 -7.7
Jaylen Waddle WR 0.46 BOOM 22.4 14.0 13.2 +9.2
Deebo Samuel WR 0.29 MODERATE 11.9 11.0 12.0 -0.1
Tyler Warren TE 0.36 MODERATE 10.2 12.0 12.1 -1.9
Dak Prescott QB 0.41 BOOM 31.4 20.0 20.5 +10.9
Broncos D/ST D/ST 0.29 MODERATE 8.9 8.0 8.9 -0.0
Cairo Santos K 0.18 BUST 4.0 7.0 8.4 -4.4
TOTAL 111.8 120.0 - -

Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.

Waiver Wire

Championship weeks - roster is locked in. No waiver moves recommended.

Executive Summary

Week 17 Championship matchup against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5). We're down 35.3 points after Thursday games - Jameson Williams busted at 5.7 while opponent's Thursday players scored 41.0. Jacoby Brissett in the elite CIN matchup (53.5 total) anchors our comeback attempt. Key decision: MHJ in FLEX over McMillan despite injury - XGB boom signal at 42.3% is too strong to ignore against the 28th-ranked CIN secondary.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

5.7 - 41.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Completed (2)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jameson Williams WR WR ✓ 5.7 13.4 5.7 0.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE ✓ 3.2 9.8 3.2 0.0

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 22.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 14.5
Omarion Hampton RB RB 14.9 12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.8 19.5
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.2 9.0
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 12.3 13.0
Jason Myers K K 8.4 9.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.1 8.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.7 10.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 12.9 14.0
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 8.3 9.0
Rashid Shaheed (bench) WR BE 9.4 9.0
Sam Darnold (bench) QB BE 16.0 16.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 9.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
5.7 Actual
113.7 LLM Total
114.4 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Completed (3)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Dak Prescott QB QB ✓ 22.7 20.5 20.0 +2.2
Deebo Samuel WR WR ✓ 11.3 12.0 11.0 -0.7
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 7.0 8.9 8.0 -1.9

Opponent Games Pending (13)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 18.0
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 18.0
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 14.0
Tyler Warren TE TE 12.1 12.0
DeVonta Smith WR RB/WR/TE 12.4 12.0
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 7.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.6 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Dallas Goedert (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
Taysom Hill (bench) TE BE 10.4 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 19.4 ---
41.0 Opp Actual
120.0 Opp LLM Total
126.7 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: -6.3 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 26% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (this week). Context: CIN allows 2nd-most fantasy pts to QBs, game_total 53.5 (week-high), Cardinals +7 implies garbage time passing. Expert consensus has Brissett as top-10 QB. XGB bust signal is cautionary but matchup/volume override. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 22.0 pts (within 15-24 range).

Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 31

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). Context: TB -5.5 favored, game_total 46.5, positive game script for rushing. XGB shows elevated bust risk but MC has 58.5% moderate probability. Trusting MC historical pattern. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.5 pts (within 8.2-20.2 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust (this week). Context: HOU has 8th-best run D, game_total only 39.5, low-scoring affair. XGB heavily favors bust but rookie has shown 16 touches/game since return. Close game script helps. Mode: MODERATE (borderline BUST). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-17 range).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | Def Rank: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2 (BUST)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust (this week). Context: CAR allows 25th-most to WRs, SEA -7.5 favored. Experts have JSN as must-start WR1 (#3 overall). MC and XGB both favor moderate-boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 19.5 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 25

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% boom (highest on roster!), 22.4% bust. Context: CIN allows 28th-most to WRs, 53.5 game total (week-high), negative game script means passing volume. XGB strongly signals boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end, near BOOM). Projection: 14.0 pts. CONSIDER STARTING over McMillan.

Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 5.7 (BUST)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DET @ MIN Thursday). Actual: 5.7 pts. Result was BUST vs 15.4 MC expected value.

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC0.0-0.0+0.0
14PHI8.7-2.8-5.9
13LV10.0-11.3+1.3
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX12.6-0.0-12.6
10PIT11.7-9.2-2.5
9TEN12.3-15.3+3.0
8MIN13.5-0.0-13.5
7IND14.9-11.0-3.9
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH17.5-6.9-10.6
4NYG13.8-23.8+10.0
3DEN12.7-14.9+2.2
2LV11.5-15.9+4.4
1KC6.4-24.9+18.5
  • Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
  • Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.7-12.1+3.4
14ATL8.0-16.7+8.7
13MIN7.9-2.6-5.3
12TEN7.8-0.5-7.3
11LAR9.6-4.9-4.7
10ARI10.4-3.3-7.1
9WSH10.8-11.8+1.0
8BYE12.2-14.5+2.3
7HOU11.3-8.0-3.3
6JAX10.0-6.8-3.2
5TB9.3-21.4+12.1
4ARI9.7-9.2-0.5
3NO10.1-8.2-1.9
2PIT11.3-15.2+3.9
1SF10.6-9.3-1.3
  • Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (this week). Context: TEN allows 22nd-most to TEs, game_total 36.5 is low. XGB sees high bust risk but TE position is volatile. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 6-12 range).

Context: O/U: 36.5 | Def Rank: 22

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 35.0 | Def Rank: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15BUF10.35.02.8-7.5
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15BUF10.35.02.8-7.5
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC0.0-0.0+0.0
14PHI8.7-2.8-5.9
13LV10.0-11.3+1.3
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX12.6-0.0-12.6
10PIT11.7-9.2-2.5
9TEN12.3-15.3+3.0
8MIN13.5-0.0-13.5
7IND14.9-11.0-3.9
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH17.5-6.9-10.6
4NYG13.8-23.8+10.0
3DEN12.7-14.9+2.2
2LV11.5-15.9+4.4
1KC6.4-24.9+18.5
  • Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
  • Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.7-12.1+3.4
14ATL8.0-16.7+8.7
13MIN7.9-2.6-5.3
12TEN7.8-0.5-7.3
11LAR9.6-4.9-4.7
10ARI10.4-3.3-7.1
9WSH10.8-11.8+1.0
8BYE12.2-14.5+2.3
7HOU11.3-8.0-3.3
6JAX10.0-6.8-3.2
5TB9.3-21.4+12.1
4ARI9.7-9.2-0.5
3NO10.1-8.2-1.9
2PIT11.3-15.2+3.9
1SF10.6-9.3-1.3
  • Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 17.2 18.0 BOOM 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 20.5 20.0 MODERATE 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 13.2 14.0 MODERATE 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Tyler Warren TE IND 12.1 12.0 MODERATE 41% 40% 19% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 8.9 8.0 MODERATE 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel WR WSH 12.0 11.0 MODERATE 27% 52% 22% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 22.3 18.0 MODERATE 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 8.4 7.0 BUST 13% 28% 59% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.4 12.0 MODERATE 9% 48% 43% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-26 23:11

Matchup Summary

35.0%

Win Probability

-6.3
Expected Margin
113.7
My Team (LLM Proj)
120.0
Opponent (Proj)
30.5
Margin Std Dev
120.3
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.0 pts | Median: +2.3 pts | Ceiling: +41.4 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 22.0 4.5-28.1 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 11% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.5 5.0-23.4 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 12.0 3.7-24.2 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 19.5 6.4-30.2 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 13.0 4.9-24.8 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 5.7 4.3-26.3 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 13% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.0 2.9-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 1.0-18.3 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 5.4-18.9 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Sam Darnold QB HIGH 16.0 4.0-27.6 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Sam Darnold
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.0 2.6-18.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% Tyjae Spears
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 3.2 2.2-15.3 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 14.0 3.7-21.7 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 9.0 2.8-23.3 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 21% Quentin Johnston
Rashid Shaheed WR HIGH 9.0 1.8-20.0 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 27% Rashid Shaheed
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 10.0 2.8-20.5 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% Hunter Henry

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR MED 0.0 6.6-27.5 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 20.0 7.5-30.1 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 18.0 10.9-31.3 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB MED 18.0 6.2-27.5 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 4% James Cook III
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 12.0 4.5-24.4 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 14.0 3.1-22.4 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 20% Jaylen Waddle
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 11.0 3.7-22.5 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% Deebo Samuel
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 12.0 3.2-18.2 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% Tyler Warren
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 0.7-17.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 7.0 3.8-16.2 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.3-32.0 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.3 2.0-20.2 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 33% Chimere Dike
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 11.9 3.9-23.2 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 19% Dallas Goedert
Taysom Hill TE HIGH 5.4 0.7-13.7 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 72% Taysom Hill
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.4-21.0 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.8-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 24% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Tetairoa McMillan WR 14% @ 27.6 37% @ 13.7 49% @ 7.0 12.4
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.0 43% @ 12.0 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.8 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.3 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.28.0MODERATE55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.914.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Rashee RiceWR0.00.0BUST24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.49.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.29.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.99.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.313.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Quentin JohnstonWR8.39.0MODERATE15.2%45.7%39.1%
Rashid ShaheedWR9.49.0MODERATE13.8%33.2%53.0%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.322.0MODERATE13.5%50.0%36.4%
Sam DarnoldQB15.916.0MODERATE13.3%42.9%43.8%
Bucky IrvingRB14.714.5MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.45.7BUST12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB9.83.2BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.819.5MODERATE11.4%66.0%22.6%
Omarion HamptonRB14.912.0MODERATE9.0%33.3%57.7%
Hunter HenryTE10.710.0MODERATE8.0%30.5%61.6%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1902.3 1682.2 +220.1 41.0 vs 5.7 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1787.5 1776.8 +10.7 16.4 vs 11.4 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1828.5 1599.6 +228.9 5.7 vs 41.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1771.3 1741.4 +30.0 11.4 vs 16.4 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1717.7 1743.2 -25.5 11.8 vs 11.3 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1553.0 1688.3 -135.3 38.0 vs 23.4 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1765.7 1681.7 +84.1 35.2 vs 7.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1676.2 1790.3 -114.1 11.3 vs 11.8 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1680.4 1675.5 +4.9 16.0 vs 28.6 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1676.9 1790.0 -113.1 23.4 vs 38.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1612.6 1705.6 -93.0 28.6 vs 16.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1704.9 1802.6 -97.7 7.0 vs 35.2 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 41.0 @ 5.7 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 16.4 @ 11.4 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 11.8 @ 11.3 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 38.0 @ 23.4 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 35.2 @ 7.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 16.0 @ 28.6 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Research Analysis (Midweek Update)

Thursday Games Completed (Christmas Day)

  • DET 24, MIN 31: Jameson Williams - 5.7 pts (BUST). Lions offense struggled.
  • DAL 30, WSH 23: Dak Prescott had solid game (~22 pts). Deebo Samuel quiet.
  • DEN 20, KC 13: Broncos D/ST dominated (139 yards allowed). Isiah Pacheco - 3.2 pts.

Key Injury Updates

  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI): QUESTIONABLE (heel) but coach says "he'll play if he feels good." Returned Week 16 on limited snaps.
  • George Kittle (SF): Game-time decision for MNF - affects Cairo Santos value (opponent).
  • Jordan Love (GB): OUT (concussion) - Malik Willis starting.
  • Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE): Questionable but "plans to play" per reports.

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

  • ARI @ CIN: 53.5 total (HIGHEST), ARI +7. Shootout expected. Great for Brissett, MHJ.
  • TB vs MIA: 46.5 total, TB -5.5. Positive script for Irving.
  • SEA vs CAR: 42.5 total, SEA -7.5. JSN should feast.
  • LAC vs HOU: 39.5 total, LAC -1.5. Lower scoring, tough for Hampton.

Critical Lineup Notes

  1. MHJ in FLEX over McMillan: XGB has MHJ at 42.3% boom (highest on roster) despite injury. CIN matchup is elite.
  2. Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry: Controversial call. Both have similar projections but Johnson has 33% MC boom vs Henry's 24%.
  3. Jameson Williams BUST: Already locked in at 5.7 pts. We're working around this.

Opponent Analysis (Kitty's Piggy Skins)

  • 41.0 actual points from Thursday games
  • Key threats remaining: De'Von Achane (18.0), James Cook (18.0), Jaylen Waddle (14.0)
  • Cairo Santos (CHI K) has high bust probability (59.2% XGB)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.4
Our Team MAE
17 players
9.4
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 10.7
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.8 24.0 0.0 -24.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 22.3 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Opponent RB James Cook III 17.2 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team QB Sam Darnold 15.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 13.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 12.4 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent TE Tyler Warren 12.1 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 14.9 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.2 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.4 15.0 5.7 -9.3
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.2 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team WR Quentin Johnston 8.3 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team WR Rashid Shaheed 9.4 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent K Cairo Santos 8.4 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.8 8.0 3.2 -4.8
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 20.5 20.0 22.7 +2.7
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 8.9 8.0 7.0 -1.0
Opponent WR Deebo Samuel 12.0 11.0 11.3 +0.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.5 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.1 pts
90th percentile 23.1 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 19.5 pts
ESPN 21.8 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 17.9 pts
90th percentile 30.1 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 25.3 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 12.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
39%
10th percentile 6.6 pts
Median (50th) 15.9 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
39% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 14.9 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 11.0 pts
90th percentile 24.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.8 pts
90th percentile 16.8 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 5.7 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 26.3 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 6.2 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 3.2 pts
ESPN 9.8 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.8 pts
90th percentile 15.3 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Sam Darnold (QB)
Sam Darnold distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
38%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 27.4 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 10.7 pts
BUST
45%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 20.5 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Quentin Johnston (WR)
Quentin Johnston distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 23.4 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Rashid Shaheed (WR)
Rashid Shaheed distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 1.7 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 19.7 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 22.3 pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 11.0 pts
Median (50th) 16.7 pts
90th percentile 31.3 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.4 pts
90th percentile 27.3 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 12.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.6 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 11.5 pts
90th percentile 22.2 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Deebo Samuel distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 12.0 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 9.9 pts
90th percentile 22.9 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Tyler Warren (TE)
Tyler Warren distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.2 pts
Median (50th) 9.4 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
41% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 20.5 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 7.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 30.0 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM